🧠Mental Models
The best frameworks for decision-making - a collection of mental models in English
You've got to have models in your head. And you've got to array your experience (both vicarious and direct) on this latticework of models.
Charlie Munger
Hierarchy of Wounds
A 4-layer framework for diagnosing existential wounds: from surface events and emotions through seven existential branches down to firaq, the single root cause.
Money Scripts
Unconscious beliefs about money formed in childhood, passed down across generations, and shaping our financial behaviors as adults.
Narrative Audit
A 4-question framework to examine your internal narrative before reacting: separate the story from measurable fact, then make decisions from real data.
False Dichotomy
A thinking error that presents two extreme options when a spectrum actually exists between them. Learning to find the third option is the key to sharper, more accurate decisions.
Anchoring Bias
The mental tendency to give excessive weight to the first piece of information received, then make insufficient adjustments from that initial starting point.
Antifragility
Systems that benefit from shocks, stress, and volatility. Antifragile entities grow stronger from pressure, surpassing mere resilience.
Risiko/Imbalan Asimetris (Strategi Barbell)
Strategi mengombinasikan kehati-hatian ekstrem dengan spekulasi kecil untuk membatasi kerugian sambil memaksimalkan potensi keuntungan tidak terbatas.
Bias Otoritas
Kecenderungan mempercayai dan mematuhi figur otoritas bahkan saat tidak rasional, tanpa menilai isi argumennya secara mandiri.
Bias Konfirmasi
Mental model tentang kecenderungan mencari, menginterpretasi, dan mengingat informasi yang mengkonfirmasi keyakinan yang sudah ada sambil mengabaikan bukti yang bertentangan.
Nilai Harapan
Perhitungan probabilitas × dampak untuk menilai keputusan rasional. Mental model fundamental dalam investasi, poker, dan strategi bisnis.
Hindsight Bias
Mental model about the tendency to see past events as more predictable than they actually were, the 'I-knew-it-all-along' phenomenon.
Jalinan Model Mental
Kerangka meta berpikir Charlie Munger untuk membangun 80-90 model mental dari berbagai disiplin ilmu, menghindari sindrom palu, dan mengembangkan kebijaksanaan duniawi.
Loss Aversion
Psychological principle that explains why the pain of losing something is stronger than the pleasure of gaining something equivalent, at a ratio of about 2.25 times.
Mental Accounting
How people sort money into different 'mental accounts' based on where it comes from or what it's for.
Optionalitas
Strategi menjaga pilihan terbuka dengan potensi keuntungan tidak terbatas dan kerugian terbatas, menciptakan asimetri hasil yang menguntungkan.
Analisis Pre-Mortem
Teknik pengambilan keputusan yang membayangkan proyek gagal total sebelum dimulai, lalu bekerja mundur untuk mengidentifikasi penyebabnya guna mencegah kegagalan nyata.
Reciprocity
Mental model explaining the human tendency to return favors and harms, creating strong social obligation after receiving something.
Reversible vs Irreversible Decisions
Jeff Bezos's framework for distinguishing one-way door decisions (irreversible) that require careful analysis from two-way door decisions (reversible) that can be made quickly.
Skin in the Game
An accountability principle requiring decision-makers to bear the consequences of their own actions to ensure fairness and incentive alignment.
Social Proof
The human tendency to imitate the actions of others when facing ambiguous situations, assuming majority behavior represents the correct decision. Learn how to leverage social proof ethically in marketing and avoid misleading crowd behavior.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Kecenderungan irasional melanjutkan proyek atau keputusan karena investasi masa lalu, bukan nilai masa depan. Riset Arkes & Blumer 1985 mengungkap bias ini dalam bisnis dan kehidupan.
Survivorship Bias
A logical error that focuses on entities that survived a selection process while ignoring those that failed, creating misleading conclusions about success patterns.
Availability Heuristic
A mental model explaining our tendency to assess event probability based on how easily examples come to mind, often outpacing objective data in our judgment.
Circle of Competence
A framework for recognizing the boundaries of knowledge you truly master, then making important decisions only within that domain.
First Principles Thinking
A thinking method that breaks down problems to the most fundamental truths, then rebuilds solutions without being constrained by old habits.
Hanlon's Razor
A principle to not immediately attribute malicious intent when a mistake can be explained by ignorance or ordinary error.
Inversion
A thinking framework that flips the question: seek ways to fail first so you can avoid them before chasing success.
Margin of Safety
An approach to create buffers to stay safe when errors, uncertainty, or unexpected surprises occur.
Occam's Razor
Choose the simplest explanation that still fits the facts before piling on assumptions or complexity.
Opportunity Cost
Every choice sacrifices the value of the best alternative you leave behind, reaching far beyond the money you spend.
Pareto Principle 80/20
Observation that a small portion of inputs, activities, or people usually produce most results. Focus on what matters and set aside the rest.
Probabilistic Thinking
A thinking approach that acknowledges uncertainty, assigns probability numbers to each belief, and updates those numbers when new evidence arrives.
Second-Order Thinking
Habit of thinking about consequences of consequences. After seeing first impact of decision, we ask what next impact is and how long-term effects play out.
Systems Thinking
A way to understand the world by seeing interconnections between parts, feedback, and patterns instead of focusing only on isolated events.
Via Negativa
An approach to improving life by removing harmful things before adding new ones.
Feedback Loops
Complex systems run on feedback loops. Self-reinforcing loops drive exponential growth and collapse; self-balancing loops hold the system steady.
Compounding Effects
Small, consistent improvements stack exponentially over time, producing results that far exceed the initial effort.
Mimetic Desire
Our desires are formed by imitating others, not arising spontaneously. Understanding this prevents us from falling into futile competition and chasing false goals.